Climate negotiations in anticipation

The message from Bali that climate negotiations will continue with the aim OF a new agreement at COP 15 in Copenhagen early December 2009 is certainly encouraging in spite of all the fine-print that the negotiators have put into the text. In the meantime, we have to “think big, start small, act now!”

Anticipating leadership

The road up to COP 15 will be travelled without one of the important co-drivers, the US President. He is, in this matter, not even a lame duck, as is the term used for outgoing presidents whose proposals can be ignored since they can not be around for their implementation anyway.  He looks more like the dead parrot in the Monty Python sketch.

Many European newspapers have commented upon the U.S. behaviour in the Bali negotiations. Not the least the fact that their negotiators were booed at the meeting and asked to “get out of the way” if they did not want to help. A very un-diplomatic and rare behaviour, but which clearly shows that the U.S. has lost all confidence on the climate arena.

The major U.S. newspapers, however, have not even commented on the end of the meeting in their editorials. It looks to be a rather clear signal that the U.S. does not expect anything from its present administration, but is just waiting for the next, which in turn means that half of the time until COP 15 will be spent in anticipation of a new leader in Washington. Who will it be and what will that person say about climate issues?

Democrates

·         Hillary Clinton is a known card with clear statements on the issues

·         Barack Obama has also expressed himself in very favourable terms on climate action 

·         John Edwards, like his competitors among the democrats, has made rather bold statements

Republicans

·         Mitt Romney does not mention climate change but only energy dependency 

·         Rudy Guiliani does not mention climate nor energy at all among his 12 important issues

·         Mike Huckabee does not express himself in terms of climate change but energy security. He is however reported   to be in favour of global actions and U.S. participation based on a theological statement that the earth belongs to God and we have no right to destroy it.

Think big, start small, act now!

In all we do not know the pitch of the U.S. voice in this crucial matter till November 2008! We just have to anticipate that there will be a change and that it probably will be towards the better even if the emphasis might be rather on the concern for the U.S. car-industry and farmers than on the common future.
We do know however that there are lots of actions in the states in the U.S. from east to west and back. We may have to think as Thomas Freidman suggest in New York Times after the Bali weeks “Think big, start small, act now!” This could be a useful mantra. As for the U.S. leadership, we will have to wait until later.