Energy Package - the (simplified) math

In a recent speech, Commissioner Andris Piebalgs briefed the EPP on his energy package. Looking at the maths behind the package allows us to read between the lines and assess its level of ambition.

* According to the European Environmental Agency, reductions in the EU emissions will be around 5.2%, and member states will acquire 2.6% of emissions to the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms

** Based on 20% GDP growth per decade. Expected increase in primary energy consumption is 5% per decade.

*** If we achieve 13% reduction in primary energy consumption through energy efficiency improvement, this reduces today's greenhouse gas emissions level to 83% (95% * 0.87), compared to 1990 levels. Further decarbonising energy supply through renewables brings this down to 74% (83 * 0.89), compared to 1990 levels.

Extremely ambitious on energy efficiency and renewables

It is good to reflect on how ambitious the scenario seems to be on sustainable energy:

• A 13% absolute decrease in primary energy consumption, equivalent to a 10% absolute reduction per decade. This means an improvement in the energy intensity of use against GDP of a factor 3 (1% per year, compared to 1% per year historically). If achieved, it will be the first time ever for a major developed economy to achieve a sizeable reduction in primary energy consumption.
• In the coming 13 years, we expect the share of renewables to increase by three times more than in the past 17 years.
• In combination, energy efficiency and renewables are expected to take four times more carbon out of the atmosphere in the coming 13 years, than they did in the past 17.

The combined targets for energy efficiency and renewables offer more than 20% reduction in greenhouse gasses from the energy sector. And any use of the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms would give further manouvring space.

Nuclear power, and carbon energy

The above, simplified calculations assume no change in the percentage contribution of nuclear power. The use of nuclear energy is up to the member states, but any nuclear phaseout should not increase the use of carbon energy.

As for carbon energy, 'clean coal' (using carbon capture and sequestration) is not expected to make any sizeable contribution up to 2020.

Ambition, targets & flexibility

We now have a clear plan and ambitious targets. Rather than starting a potentially long debate on making these targets binding, we'd rather see realistic implementation offering the necessary regulatory, technology, financial, educational and decision-making instruments.