CO2 emissions in Europe are rising

...and rising more steeply than in the U.S.A.

The G8 summit in Heiligendamm last June raised hopes that the U.S. will finally get on board for a new, post-Kyoto agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gasses (GHG) (see recent blog post). That would be an important addition, but also one that needs to be put into perspective. The U.S.A has been charged with heresy for not ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, but a question remains: have GHG emissions decreased in Europe since the Kyoto Protocols were established ten years ago? To put it bluntly, the answer is a resounding no! In fact, since the year 2000, GHG emissions have been rising more steeply in Europe than in the U.S.A. (still the world’s largest single contributor to GHG emissions and the country with the highest GHG emissions per capita).

The pre-Kyoto or the post-Kyoto years?

The figures that are most often cited are those that compare 1990, the base year for the Kyoto Protocol, with 2004 or 2005. Between 1990 and 2004, CO^₂ emissions decreased in Europe by 6.3 per cent, while in the U.S., they increased by 19.8 per cent. Wow! What a difference! Shame on America!

But wait a minute, the Kyoto agreement was not signed in 1990, but in 1997. The figures from 2000 till 2004 show a completely different picture. In that period, CO^₂ emissions increased in Europe by 3.8 per cent, while in the U.S. they only increased by 1.8 per cent.

The influence of economic changes

GHG emissions in Europe decreased significantly between 1990 and 2000, primarily because of the transition of eastern European countries from an energy intensive, communist economy to a cleaner EU economy. However, in that same period, the U.S. was experiencing an economic boom leading to a substantial increase in GHG emissions. In recent years, despite all efforts following the Kyoto Summit, CO^₂ emissions have been rising more steeply in Europe than in the U.S.A. Like it or not, those are the hard facts.

We can only conclude that up to now, economic changes have had a far greater influence on the evolution of GHG emissions than climate change mitigation treatments and actions. A sad commentary, but true.