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Sustainable Energy Science
About emerging insights from scientific publishers on sustainable energy science, technology & policy
Germany's Solar Cell Promotion: Dark Clouds on the Horizon
Submitted by Hans De Keulenaer on Thu, 2008-06-05 09:35.
By Manuel Frondel et al
This article demonstrates that the large feed-in tariffs currently guaranteed for solar electricity in Germany constitute a subsidization regime that, if extended to 2020, threatens to reach a level comparable to that of German hard coal production, a notoriously outstanding example of misguided political intervention. Yet, as a consequence of the coexistence of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) and theEUEmissions Trading Scheme (ETS), the increased use of renewable energy technologies does not imply any additional emission reductions beyond those already achieved by ETS alone. Similarly disappointing is the net employment balance, which is likely to be negative if one takes into account the opportunity cost of this form of solar photovoltaic support. Along the lines of the International Energy Agency (IEA 2007:77), we therefore recommend the immediate and drastic reduction of the magnitude of the feed-in tariffs granted for solar-based electricity. Ultimately, producing electricity on this basis is among the most expensive greenhouse gas abatement options.
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A rather dissident voice on solar
This article argues somewhat convincingly that the rationale for solar subsidies in terms of climate change mitigation, employment creation and security of supply improvement is somewhat questionnable.
In terms of economic efficiency, supporting energy efficiency at a fraction of the feed-in tariff could have a much bigger impact. We can only dream what a feed-in tariff of 3-5 c/kWh for energy efficiency measures could do.
The paper however misses one important dimension: the cost reduction effect of technologies as they go through a learning cycle. It is well documented by IEA that these costs go down by 15-20% for each cumulative doubling of output. We hope that the PV technology platform, assisted a.o. by these subsidies, achieves its cost and efficiency targets.
Allocation of the solar subsidy among these 4 impacts (climate, jobs, security and learning) is virtually impossible. Time will tell whether they were efficient and effective. Meanwhile, these subsidies embed a political choice.
The next thing is the