Long-term energy forecasts have a poor track record. They have failed to accurately predict total energy demand, sector demand and energy prices. Attempts to improve accuracy by adding more factors to explain consumption and pricing has complicated the models without necessarily improving their results. This last of 3 articles on long-term energy forecasting focuses on why long-term energy forecasting is so difficult, ideas to improve it and suggested alternatives.
The Track Record is Poor for Predicting Long-Ter
The implementation of some simple energy-saving measures in schools can reduce energy consumption, save money, improve conditions for staff and students, and cut carbon emissions.
Energy consumption in schools is quite atypical. School buildings are generally not used in the evenings and at night, nor during weekends and school holidays. Actually, they may only be used from approximately 8:00 to 16:00 for only 180 days a year, or 1440 hours/year.
Traditionally the benefits of energy efficiency have been focused on energy demand reduction and lower greenhouse gas emissions. However, there are many other areas in which clear benefits of energy efficiency have been documented.
Energy efficiency is in fact a major energy resource. Macroeconomists have stated that energy efficiency is the surest energy supply that exists. It could even be described as the largest or “first” fuel.
Understanding the efficiency of a PV system and the root cause of faults can contribute to the further development and implementation of PV systems worldwide.
The market for PV systems is rapidly and significantly expanding in an increasing number of countries.
What are the barriers and drivers for energy efficiency? Under what circumstances do they arise? How important are they in different contexts? How do the different actors intervene to overcome these barriers? These are just some of the issues discussed in “Barriers and drivers to energy efficiency – A new taxonomical approach” by B.
This is a key question asked by Nikhil Kaza and Marie Patane Curtis in their recent paper entitled “The Land Use Energy Connection.”
It’s a valid – and highly relevant – question to ask, because most planners focus on energy consumption, not production.