Kyoto target achievable for EU-15

But use of Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks required

There has been a lot of buzz in recent years about the EU-2020 emission reduction targets. So much in fact, that we might quite easily forget that the first Kyoto goal set by the European Union has still not been achieved - the final date for that goal is 2012. This goal was established for the EU-15 and not for the EU-27 as are the 2020 targets. It prescribes an average annual emission level of -8% compared to the base year for the period from 2008 to 2012.

According to a report by the European Environment Agency (EEA), this target could be achieved and even surpassed, but not without the use of Kyoto Mechanisms (KM) and Carbon Sink (CS) activities. This raises the question that if we already have to rely on these 'escape routes' to reach our short term commitment, does that mean we need to be worried about the attainability of the 2020 targets? Or is the use of these mechanisms simply related to teething problems and will the realization of local emission reductions become easier in future years?

The target is within sight

The EEA report takes the projected emissions for the year 2010 as a reference for the period 2008-2012. With the existing measures presently in place, the projected GHG emissions for 2010 are 3.6% below the Kyoto baseline. An additional emission reduction of 3.3% can be expected by 2010 if the additional measures that are planned by ten Member States are fully implemented and on time. This sets the projections for 2010 at 7.9% below the base line, which is close to the target of -8%.

A further reduction will be reached by Kyoto Mechanisms (KM), used to finance emission reduction programmes outside the EU-15, and by Carbon Sink activities (CS) such as planting forests. Ten countries are planning to make use of these 'escape routes' which is projected to achieve a further emission reduction of 4.35% by 2010. If all this comes to pass, the projected EU-15 GHG emission level by 2010 will be -11.25% compared to the baseline. This falls comfortably within the actual target.

Low hanging fruit or avalanche?

It might be worrying that several EU countries are making use of KM and CS activities to reach their 2012 targets. Does it mean that the 'low hanging fruit' of the emission reductions has already been picked? In that case, how are those countries ever going to reach their 2020 targets? On the other hand it is often claimed that within the domain of energy efficiency, there is still a lot of low hanging fruit left. Then why is it not presently being harvested and why are KM and CS mechanisms being used instead? Perhaps this fruit is not hanging quite as low as it might appear?

However, the 'low hanging fruit' theory is only a metaphor and may not tell the complete story. In some areas of GHG emission reduction, there might even be an opposite kind of movement, comparable with an avalanche. This might for instance be the case with solar energy. The growth of this burgeoning market is attracting money to improve the technology, which will make the market grow even faster, attracting even more investment and research capital.

This raises the question of which of the opposite dynamics will be dominant. The low-hanging-fruit dynamic, expressing that the best opportunities for energy saving and the best sites for renewable energy have already been picked? Or the avalanche dynamic, expressing that renewable energy markets are still maturing and have not yet seen their steepest growing curves?

20 plus 20 is not 20

Due to the large variety of sources that have a major influence on the accumulated GHG emissions, it is a complex exercise to predict how much effort it will take and at what cost for the EU to reach its 2020 GHG emission target. The EU however does have one great advantage: if enough effort is made to achieve the other two main targets for 2020, namely 20% reliance on renewables and a 20% energy efficiency improvement, that will almost certainly result in a GHG emission reduction of more than 20%. Or in other words, even if we fail to stick to the first two targets, the GHG emission target might still be achieved.

Reference

Article 'EU-15 on target for Kyoto, despite mixed performances' on the Web site of the European Environment Agency (EEA)