Reliability of large power units in probabilistic approach

By J Buchta et al

The paper presents results of reliability analysis made for the 370 MW power units installed in the Bełchatów Power Station (Poland). The concept of standardized power unit and the method of a histogram with a set number of observations in each class was applied in a study. The study includes analysis of probability distributions of operation times and repair times for the main power unit components. Empirical probability distribution functions are identified and their parameters are estimated in the study. The final forecast includes an estimation of such reliability measures like expected operation time, expected failure rate, average repair time and expected annual failure duration.