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Sharpest CO2 emissions decline in the US ever

By: 
Bruno De Wachter
/ Published on: 
Tue, 05/25/2010 - 05:30

Further Reading

Economic fluctuations are main influence

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the US decreased by 7% or 405 million metric tons in 2009. This is the largest absolute and percentage decline since the start of EIA’s recording of annual data in 1949.

Energy-related carbon emissions in the US reached their highest values between 2004 and 2007, when they stabilised around 6,000 million metric tons per year. Following the declines in 2008 (-3%) and 2009 (-7%), the emissions are now back at the 1995 level of approximately 5,400 million metric tons per year.

Is this a big success for America’s carbon emission reduction programmes? The answer is mostly no — but from a certain perspective, yes. The EIA report includes a comprehensive analysis on the causes of the emission decline, showing that the economic downturn played a primary role.

A detailed analysis of the underlying causes

According to the EIA report, three factors are more or less equally important in the carbon dioxide emission decline in 2009:

  1. The decline in GDP
  2. The decline in energy intensity of the economy
  3. The decline in carbon intensity of the energy supply

The second factor might at first sight be interpreted as a result of energy efficiency efforts. That is only partially true, however. The main cause of this decline is that the economic crisis affected the energy-intensive industry and transport sectors more than other parts of the economy. Apart from that, an energy efficiency improvement in the transport sector of 5.5% also plays a significant role.

The sharp decline in carbon intensity of the energy supply is unprecedented, but is also primarily due to economic factors. The economic crisis precipitated a price increase for coal and a price decrease for natural gas. As a result, power plants and industry made increasingly use of natural gas in place of coal. Natural gas has a 45% lower carbon content than coal and it is burned in highly efficient combined cycle power plants.

Along with this switch in fuel types, an increased proportion of renewables and nuclear power in the fuel mix also contributed to the decline of the carbon intensity of energy supply. The rise in wind power production (+ 15 TWh in 2009) had an especially significant impact on the carbon emissions.

Economic factors dominant, policy efforts play their role

The figures in the EIA report demonstrate that economic fluctuations remain the major influence on the variations in carbon emissions in the US. When taken overall, one can attribute roughly 5% of the 7% decline in 2009 to economic causes, and roughly 2% to carbon emission reduction efforts on the part of the government, companies, and individuals. This puts the figures in their true perspective and certainly kills any undue euphoria that climate change salvation is at hand. But 2% (117 million tons) per year is not negligible. The fact that energy efficiency improvements in transport and the strong growth of wind power have visible results in the national statistics, are a success in their own right. In these times of omnipresent defeatism, this conclusion almost feels like a relief.

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wind, transport, statistics, greenhouse gas emissions, GDP, Sustainable Energy Blog, USA

Comments

By webmaster / Published on Thu, 06/03/2010 - 09:41

For Europe, 2009 figures are not yet available. The EEA just issued its 2008 inventory report, which declares a 2% reduction of EU greenhouse gas emissions in 2008 over 2007. Cumulatively, EU-27 emissions are 11.3% below their 1990 levels - a reduction well above the 2012 Kyoto target and more than half-way on its way towards the 2020 targets.

With reduced economic activity in Europe in 2009, similar to US, a higher percentage reduction may be expected next year, which will be partially offset when growth resumes.

By Tom Harrison / Published on Tue, 06/08/2010 - 14:47

This is an excellent analysis. As with all economics, the conclusion is dismal, yet I agree with you, there is hope.

Indeed, perhaps the most significant things I see is that there is clearly significant elasticity of demand -- during 2009 energy prices were generally a great deal lower than they had been (oil was as low as $40/bbl) yet even in these conditions, the relative price fuels, and a simultaneous increase in supply (wind, nuclear) had a big impact.

This suggests to me that we have a bigger lever than perhaps we realize through pricing power. If we turn that lever on for fuels with high carbon intensity through some mechanisms like carbon taxation, regulation, cap-and-trade could we be close to making rather more significant inroads than all of the models being considered predict?

Of course (because I have an economics degree) I must point out that we could just continue with the status quo: world recession, lots of nice wars, famine, drought, and disease and we'll get to the same result. Personally I favor the policy methods over these.

I hope via whatever means are necessary, we are able to find a way to pass legislation that has a real impact on our energy policy. This report validates the opportunity we have to make significant changes by following a less painful path than we followed in 2009.

Tom

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