By Bruno De Wachter / Published on Tue, 2010-02-16 14:58
The IEP roadmap to 2050
In December 2009, the International Electricity Partnership (IEP) published its 'Roadmap for a Low-Carbon Power Sector by 2050'. The IEP was created in October 2008 at an international summit of electricity chief executives held in Atlanta, USA. Its roadmap focuses on Australia, Canada, the European Union, Japan, and the United States.
The IEP industry leaders see a crucial role for the electrical power sector. Historically, electrical power has been the largest source of CO2 emissions, the main contributor to climate change. But in the upcoming decades electricity can become a key lever in evolving towards a low carbon economy, states the IEP. The key technological evolutions necessary to make this happen are the electrification of heating and transport, and carbon-free power generation.
Aggressive application of technology
The report sets a target of 60% to 80% reduction in carbon emission by 2050. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) this is the level of reductions required to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere at 450 to 550 ppm CO2eq. This is estimated to correspond with an average global temperature rise of 2-3 °C. The IEP argues that reaching this target is only possible through an aggressive application of technology. It advocates policies that provide incentives for high investments in renewable energy, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), nuclear power, smart grids, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and energy efficiency.
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By Bruno De Wachter / Published on Thu, 2010-01-07 06:30
'Searching for a miracle'
Last September, an interesting new analysis was published by two California-based think tanks: Searching for a miracle / "Net Energy" limits & the fate of industrial society. The report, written by Richard Heinberg, is a joint initiative by the International Forum on Globalization and the Post Carbon Institute.
As with the book Sustainable energy / Without the hot air by David Mc Kay (on which we reported earlier on this blog), the report by Heinberg has as its principal merit a comprehensive analysis of the energy problem. With global warming becoming an increasingly important topic and the all-time peak of global oil production most probably behind us (July 2008, 87.9 million barrels per day), we can no longer hide behind local solutions. The world’s energy use will need a radical change in the upcoming decades.
But contrary to David Mc Kay’s book, Heinberg’s study also takes the cost, the reliability, and the potential transition speed of possible energy resources into account, as well as their physical and technical potential. However, Heinberg looks at the energy solutions separately and does not propose scenarios in which demand and production figures are added up and matched, as Mc Kay did.
It is worth noting that both experts put emphasis on the need for energy conservation and on the advantages of electricity as an energy carrier. Another common viewpoint of both experts is that they see only a very limited potential for biomass, ethanol, and biodiesel. Both also view wind energy and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) as very powerful options for the future.
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By Hans De Keulenaer / Published on Wed, 2009-09-09 11:54
This document is an overall report of the seminar “Electricity in the next decade”, the first in an annual series of events regarding “Low carbon electricity systems”. KEMA, ECI and Leonardo ENERGY are jointly organising these events.
Next to the topics presented during the first event, a few additional topics have been added in order to create a white paper and a more complete picture on the theme “Electricity in the next decade”.
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By Hans De Keulenaer / Published on Wed, 2009-09-02 11:21
From the World Energy Investment Outlook 2008 it becomes clear the energy sector will have to play a central role in tackling climate change. The key issue, curbing CO2 emissions, can be done through major improvements in efficiency combined with rapid switching to renewables. Renewables can be central organised (like hydropower plants, large wind farms, co-firing of biomass, CSP) but also decentral (PV, local biomass, micro CHP, local renewable heat sources). Another solution to reduce emissions will be to implement carbon capture and storage (CCS) and continue to use fossil fuels.
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By Bruno De Wachter / Published on Tue, 2009-08-18 05:30
A concept often causing confusion
The 'smart grid' is commonly presented as an indispensable part of the future power system. It is claimed that a true liberalised electricity market with a high penetration of distributed generation will only be able to supply a high degree of power reliability if grids are made smart.
But what exactly is a 'smart grid'? Reading through some literature on the subject, one quickly discovers that it can mean many different things to many different people, often leading discussions to end in confusion.
A smart grid is neither a clearly defined single concept nor a single technology. Rather it is like a basket containing various combinations of balls. The context and the interpretation depend upon the user. Carnegie Mellon University recently published an article describing all of the various balls typically found in this metaphorical basket. Some of them represent innovations that are still in the development phase, while others stand for technologies which have already been applied for years.
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By HDK / Published on Wed, 2009-08-05 15:26
Customers want a reliable, affordable and sustainable electricity supply. Over the years the emphasis between these three items have been shifted.
What do you expect that customers will value most in the future electricity supply? We welcome your comments and votes on this question.
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By HDK / Published on Wed, 2009-08-05 15:21
At present both electricity and gas energy delivery chains exists for the full range from long distance to distribution and end-use.
How do you view the use of either electricity (E) or gas (G) for the future energy delivery chain ranging from long distance (> 1000km) transmission, (regional) transmission, (local) distribution to end-use?
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By Bruno De Wachter / Published on Thu, 2009-06-18 05:30
Incremental changes can result in substantial cost reductions
The technologies for producing electricity from solar thermal energy can be divided into three main categories:
- Parabolic trough and Fresnel systems
- Central receiver systems, including the solar updraft tower
- Parabolic dish systems, usually combined with a Stirling heat engine
The first commercial CSP plant, which was built in California in the 1980s, used the parabolic trough concept. It has a total capacity of 354 MW. For many years, this was the only large scale CSP plant in the world. Elsewhere, only small demonstration plants were built, as the high investment cost hampered further deployment.
In 2006, a new commercial 1 MW parabolic trough CSP plant was built in Tucson, Arizona. Since then, the development of CSP as a commercial electricity generating technology has taken off. Many CSP projects are currently being built, the majority of which are in Spain and the USA. It is very likely that because of this market boom, investment costs for CSP will go down. The question is how much and how quickly.
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By Bruno De Wachter / Published on Tue, 2009-06-16 05:30
Diversification complicates price predictions
In regards to PV energy, we will focus on grid connected systems only, since they represent the large majority of the market. The cost of a grid connected PV system is composed of the PV module cost and the 'BOS' cost (Balance of System). The BOS consists of the structures for mounting the PV modules and of the power-conditioning equipment that converts the DC power of the modules into the AC grid power.
Prediction not straightforward
Three difficulties arise when trying to predict the future cost development of PV energy starting from existing experience curves.
- The cost decrease over the past four decades was not at all linear. It alternated periods of sharp decline with periods in which it stayed more or less constant. As a result, experience cost curves that do not represent large time spans can result in a distorted perspective.
- Various PV technologies exist and are difficult to represent with a single experience curve. New types of PV systems may break through in the near future that completely change the average cost of PV modules.
- Even if the future cost of individual PV modules can be predicted, this does not mean the cost of electricity generated by those PV systems can be easily determined. Factors such as geographical location, local support mechanisms, and the size of systems will have a major influence on the average PV electricity cost.
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By Bruno De Wachter / Published on Wed, 2009-06-10 05:30
Design improvements provide the main potential - material costs the main barrier
When predicting the learning curve of wind energy, a distinction should be made between on-shore and off-shore wind. While the former started to develop in the mid 1970s, the latter only took off around the year 2000 and is consequently still lacking extensive historical data. As the figures of the NEEDS study show, today’s off-shore wind and on-shore wind electricity prices are of the same order of magnitude.
Cost of system drops faster than cost of turbine
Historical cost development curves of on-shore wind show large differences that depend mainly on the timeframe, the system boundaries, and the geographical area. As a general rule one can say that the experience ratio is higher for the complete system than for the turbine alone. This is confirmed by the bottom-up study of NEEDS, which shows that the relative share of the turbine cost in the complete wind energy cost increased in the past decades.
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By Bruno De Wachter / Published on Tue, 2009-06-09 08:12
Future cost development of renewable energy
Predicting the learning curves
How will the cost of the various renewable energy systems evolve in the future? That is a question a great many people are concerned about. To make the transition to a sustainable energy economy, the development and deployment of renewable energy systems will be indispensable. While all of these technologies presently have a higher cost than traditional energy systems, it is generally believed that they will become cheaper once they have gone through their learning curve.
Predicting this cost development curve was the goal of the NEEDS project (New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability). The accuracy of decision support tools depends on the reliability of such predictions. It provides investors and policy makers alike with knowledge as to what degree investing in a particular renewable technology is likely to be worthwhile.
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By HDK / Published on Fri, 2009-05-29 08:41
Date & Venue: June 16, 2009 - Arnhem
A new annual congress has been established with the intention of exchanging knowledge on low carbon electricity systems. The congress invites the participation of professionals interested in developing their vision of low carbon electricity, including policy makers, utility planning managers, consultants, energy industry representatives, research journalists and academics. Participants can expect a realistic, market-oriented approach with academic validation.
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By HDK / Published on Mon, 2009-05-25 15:54
The delivery of electricity to consumers is influenced by demand and supply factors. Using DSR influences the customer’s behavior by offering the customer the choice to buy electricity now, to refrain from buying, buy less/more, or to buy at some other time. This may result in the same supply capacity and overall reliability for less capital and a reduction of the greenhouse gasses, due to efficient use of the production capacity.
How much do you expect DSR would reduce electricity bills?
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By Hans De Keulenaer / Published on Tue, 2009-04-21 15:10
Grid parity - the point where the cost of generating electricity by solar systems equalises the average (wholesale) price of generating electricity by means of conventional methods - is the Holy Grail for the photovoltaics industry. For concentrating photovoltaics in the sunniest locations in the world, this point is not far off. The most optimistic estimates put it at 2011, whereas pessimists expect we'll have to wait as long as 2020. Therefore, a prediction market at Leonardo Visions to build a consensus view among Leonardo ENERGY users on this important issue.
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By Hans De Keulenaer / Published on Thu, 2009-03-19 08:27
The EU Directive for the promotion of the use of renewable energy sets a target of renewables origin for 20% of consumed energy, both electrical and thermal use. Individual targets are set on country basis. The directive is extremely ambitious and calls for a significant acceleration of growth in an alreadyfast growing market, while the EU is not on course for meeting its 2010 renewable targets. On the other hand, despite the financial crisis, political support for the renewable targets appears unwavering.
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By Hans De Keulenaer / Published on Mon, 2009-02-16 08:13
To explore the many rapid changes in the electricity system, we have launched Leonardo Visions, a collective wisdom solution to deal with uncertainty.
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By Hans De Keulenaer / Published on Sun, 2009-02-01 09:42
In Partnership with the Florence School of Regulation.
Smart metering is a crucial factor for the efficient functioning of the Internal Electricity Market, as well as for the successful implementation of European Union policies related to energy efficiency, renewable energy and security of supply.
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By Peter Vaessen / Published on Wed, 2009-01-28 19:37
Several European countries have policies to encourage the development of renewable energy sources. This is identified in, for example, the European green paper Energy strategy for a sustainable, competitive and secure energy supply (March 2006).
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By Hans De Keulenaer / Published on Wed, 2009-01-07 19:27
'An Alternative Transport Future' will examine the political, policy and practical challenges of integrating transport and climate change priorities.
Balancing transport, environment and society's needs
Given attempts to reach a balance between the soaring demand for transport, the environment and the needs of society, the demand for sustainable transport is becoming increasingly pressing. This conference will seek to identify the steps which need to be taken by policymakers, the transport industry and the investment community to resolve these conflicts.
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