Harebrained solutions for the energy problem

Thinking out of the box

Surfing the Internet, one frequently comes upon articles on new inventions for harvesting energy and solving the energy problem. Last week, we reported on the concept of 'solar highways'. That idea is certainly not the craziest one to come along...

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Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050

This Monday, Friends of Europe and Shell presented the “Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050”.

The document is part of a long tradition by Shell of developing scenarios on energy production and use not intended to be forecasts, but rather efforts to understand the different development paths that can be followed.

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Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050

This Monday, Friends of Europe and Shell presented the “Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050”.

The document is part of a long tradition by Shell of developing scenarios on energy production and use not intending to be forecasts, but rather efforts to understand the different development paths that can be followed.

This year two scenarios are proposed, Scramble and Blueprints, highlighting two different ways the world may deal with the three unavoidable truths about the future of energy: the surge in energy demand, the end of easily accessible oil, and increasing environmental stresses.

Scramble reflects the dynamics behind energy security. The focus naturally falls on the supply side with the negotiation of bilateral agreements and incentives for local resource development. The growth in coal and biofuels is particularly significant. Actions addressing climate change and encouraging energy efficiency are pushed into the future and demand side policy is not pursued meaningfully. Environmental policy is not seriously addressed until major climate events stimulate political response. Initial strong economic growth is followed by strong slowdown due to energy price spikes and volatility. Atmospheric CO2 growth is moderated by the end of the period, but is the result of a longterm high growth path.

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$100 per barrel. So what?

Yesterday, the barrel of oil was traded at over 100 dollars at the New York market. This is likely the effect of a normal New Year’s “rush” from buyers coupled with the instability and violence in Nigeria and Argelia, two OPEC members.

The “cocktail” of current instability and the growing demand from countries like China and India does not draw a clear scenario – the price can go down 20 dollars or go up until 120 or 150 dollar a barrel in a few weeks. Nevertheless, experts state that the price will not go down to much lower levels. The IEA even admitted in a recent report the possibility of rupture on the global supply market.

But how does our life change with high prices of oil?

There is not a great danger on inflation rocketing because of the high value of Euro face to dollar.The most direct impact will be on fuel and energy prices that will inevitably have an effect on all other products and activities, particularly transport.

Experts state that even with this escalade, the “shock” caused by the demand growth from India and China together with speculation is having less serious effects than the 70s oil shock caused by the cartelization of prices by OPEC. This, because western countries are less dependant on oil. And here lies the big issue.

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Alternative fuels for cars

Comparing environmental performance, price, and efficiency

The Popular Mechanics Magazine web site published an interesting comparison  between various alternative vehicle fuels. They imagined a rally from New-York to California and calculated how different types of cars would perform in terms of raw material consumption, fuel need, fuel cost, and mileage.

lectricity turns out to be by far the cheapest fuel option, having a fuel cost of $60, compared to $110 for natural gas, $231 for biodiesel, $425 for ethanol and $804 for hydrogen fuel cells.

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Fuelling future transport

Is the race over the roads about to start?

BMW launches their hydrogen 7-series and aims at celebrities to get the attention from the rest of us. We have also seen hydrogen highways declared on the east of the American continent all the way from Canada to Mexico. But is all this serious? We heard only recently severe warnings that the hydrogen society is an illusion. And Worldwatch Institute reports that Iceland, which certainly has a comparative advantage to the hydrogen economy, is reducing its plans.

The CEO of Volvo Trucks, Mr Leif Johansson, has asked for higher taxes on petrol and lower on alternative fuels, without specifying, which he favours. His claim is however that this has to happen on a European base since trucks do not stop at the borders to shift engines.

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Combustible Ice - A resource that buys us more time or another step to doomsday?

Methane gas hydrate, also named "combustible ice" has been found in huge quantities in the south Chinese Sea bed and China plans to invest some 80 M€ for exploitation. It is also assumed that there are further large quantities of combustible ice in the permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

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