By Bruno De Wachter / Published on Tue, 2010-02-16 14:58
The IEP roadmap to 2050
In December 2009, the International Electricity Partnership (IEP) published its 'Roadmap for a Low-Carbon Power Sector by 2050'. The IEP was created in October 2008 at an international summit of electricity chief executives held in Atlanta, USA. Its roadmap focuses on Australia, Canada, the European Union, Japan, and the United States.
The IEP industry leaders see a crucial role for the electrical power sector. Historically, electrical power has been the largest source of CO2 emissions, the main contributor to climate change. But in the upcoming decades electricity can become a key lever in evolving towards a low carbon economy, states the IEP. The key technological evolutions necessary to make this happen are the electrification of heating and transport, and carbon-free power generation.
Aggressive application of technology
The report sets a target of 60% to 80% reduction in carbon emission by 2050. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) this is the level of reductions required to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere at 450 to 550 ppm CO2eq. This is estimated to correspond with an average global temperature rise of 2-3 °C. The IEP argues that reaching this target is only possible through an aggressive application of technology. It advocates policies that provide incentives for high investments in renewable energy, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), nuclear power, smart grids, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and energy efficiency.
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By Bruno De Wachter / Published on Tue, 2007-12-18 08:30
An annual survey
This past year of 2007 was again an eventful one in the world of energy. There were new trends, evolving markets, and important breakthroughs. The following 11 highlights stood out:
1) 4th IPCC Assessment Report
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its 4th Assessment Report. One of its most striking conclusions is that we don’t have to wait for miracles or ingenious new solutions. The technologies, policies, and measures needed to mitigate climate change are known and doable. They just need to be applied.
With this 4th report, the IPCC has confirmed that there is a consensus among experts on what we know about climate change, how serious the earth’s situation may be, and what we can do to mitigate the phenomenon. Its efforts were rewarded with this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, shared with the mediagenic Al Gore.
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By Hans Nilsson / Published on Mon, 2007-12-17 08:00
The message from Bali that climate negotiations will continue with the aim OF a new agreement at COP 15 in Copenhagen early December 2009 is certainly encouraging in spite of all the fine-print that the negotiators have put into the text. In the meantime, we have to “think big, start small, act now!”
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By Hans Nilsson / Published on Mon, 2007-11-19 08:00
While the world is struggling with climate issues and as IPCC has issued its final report, underlining the severity and the need to act, there is a solution close at hand.
It is claimed, by some, that the problem is so-called "urban heat islands" - paint the cities white and shazaam the problem is solved! It is also far cheaper than all other measures.
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By Hans Nilsson / Published on Mon, 2007-10-15 07:00
The Nobel Prize is awarded for past achievements, but is mostly more interesting in the perspective of these achievements' applicability for the future. This is certainly true for all the categories, but, in a more general sense, is more valid for this years' award to the IPCC and Al Gore. Congratulations to both of them!
It is very appropriate that the Peace Prize is awarded to these individuals, since global warming may have a destabilising consequence. At the extreme, the impact on habitats and living conditions may even feed terrorism, as pointed out by a group of U.S. militaries! If the committee today (October 15th) also awarded Sir Nicholas Stern the prize for Economy, it would be a grand slam, but that would be too much to hope for.
The IPCC in the shadow
Most of the focus in the media has been on Al Gore, probably because the media in general is more focused on people than topics, but the achievements of the IPCC need more highlighting. The IPCC has been somewhat overshadowed in the media.
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By Bruno De Wachter / Published on Wed, 2007-09-12 07:30
IPCC figures
Capturing the carbon of fossil fuel power generation plants and storing it underground sounds a great idea for mitigating climate change. It would allow for continued fossil fuel use in the coming decades. But along with several major technical issues that still need to be solved, one must also wonder whether Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) will ever be economically feasible.
The Oil Drum posted an article on this subject, based on a special report by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). It estimates that for a pulverized coal plant, the additional cost of CCS would amount to 20 to 30 per cent on top of the industrial base price. The consequence would be an increase in the general electricity generation cost of US$ 0.01 to 0.05 per kWh. By using carbon storage for 'Enhanced Oil Recovery' (EOR), this additional electricity production cost would be reduced to US$ 0.01 to 0.02 per kWh.
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By Bruno De Wachter / Published on Thu, 2007-05-31 07:30
The conclusion of the IPCC is frightening enough
One cannot help but be surprised by the degree of polemics still encountered in mass media and politics on the origin of climate change. This is due in part to the over-simplification by the media of credible scientific findings. There is a distressing tendency to leave out the nuances of scientific method and probabilities.
The article by William B. Gail in IEEE Spectrum online on ‘Climate Control’ (blog post coming soon) is one of the few exceptions. In his description of the problem of global warming, Gail sticks to the conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) without simplifying the case, or using vague and often meaningless expressions such as ‘scientifically proven’. After all, when is something ever really scientifically proven?
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By Hans Nilsson / Published on Tue, 2007-05-08 07:00
The long-awaited report from IPCC on measures for mitigating the GHG and reducing the problems of the climate change is here, and it has been well received by policy makers all over the world. Message received, but understood? Yes and maybe!
We have heard several of them repeat the theme that the technology exists and the measures have been proven. Good that the penny has dropped! They are not focused on R&D and a distant magic technology to pop up for salvation. Nonetheless, is it also understood that there must be a widespread DEPLOYMENT of this exiting technology and a SHARPENING of the polices to make it happen? It will not come out of a BAU market application like magic!
The Financial Incentives to release the potential for improvement exist largely in the "net negative costs" (IPCC summary report, Page 19 footnote15), which represent some 7-10% of the reductions needed even with the higher ambitions set by IPCC. Much more will be cost-effectively released by the application of known policies and measures that also targets technologies that are expected to be commercialised (IPCC SR, p.24, #19), and that can be fostered by, for example, technology procurements.
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By Hans Nilsson / Published on Tue, 2007-01-30 08:00
When the scientists made the experiments to design the first atom-bomb one of the tests was called "tickling the dragons tail". For a very short while, they created critical mass (and hoped that it should stay with a tickle). The climate change however is for real - and full scale!
The IPCC is about to present their 4th report and some details have leaked. There is nothing really new but rather emphasised, more detailed and more scary. Thanks to the Stern Review the "dry messages" from IPCC have been put in context and the ppm (that few of us can visualise) have been flesh and blood for our imagination. The report will be released on Friday this week.
* Heat waves in Europe will be more frequent, more intense and longer
* Tropical storms and hurricanes more frequent and severe
* The arctic will be ice-free in the summers and mountain glaciers disappear or drastically smaller
* Sea levels will rise significantly
And then it sounds like a really bad joke that some organisations are planning to exploit fossil fuel resources in the arctic when the ice has melted! Someone is planning to light their cigars on the blast from the dragon's fiery breath, it seems!
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