What percentage of the electricity will be generated by distributed energy sources by 2050, i.e. power plants less than 10 MW?

From the World Energy Investment Outlook 2008 it becomes clear the energy sector will have to play a central role in tackling climate change. The key issue, curbing CO2 emissions, can be done through major improvements in efficiency combined with rapid switching to renewables. Renewables can be central organised (like hydropower plants, large wind farms, co-firing of biomass, CSP) but also decentral (PV, local biomass, micro CHP, local renewable heat sources). Another solution to reduce emissions will be to implement carbon capture and storage (CCS) and continue to use fossil fuels.

The third industrial revolution envisions a massive increase in renewable and distributed generation (DG). The European Commission aims at a 20% level of renewable energy in 2020. That will result in about 32% of renewable electricity for the EU27, and even more in various member states. This latter figure, however, includes large hydro power plants and the co-firing of biomass in coal-fired power plants.

The combination of a rapid development of new generation technologies and an EU energy policy that promotes the use of DG can result in a relative fast change. On the other hand, introduction of CCS or a revival of nuclear could reduce the introduction of DG. The political issue of security of supply of fossil fuel further complicates the equation.

What percentage of the electricity will be generated by distributed energy sources by 2050, i.e. power plants less than 10 MW?

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