The world in 2050

Projections according to Shell

In their "Sustainability Report 2006" Shell gives a few key figures to paint a picture of the world in 2050 and to compare it with the world we are living in today, and the world as it was in 1907, when Shell was founded.

In 2050 the world will

• be inhabited by 9 billion people, compared to 6.5 billion today and 1.7 billion back in 1907
• be 4 to 5 times richer, with most of the wealth coming from rapidly industrialising developing countries
• use twice as much energy as today and 25 times as much as in 1907
• be twice as energy efficient as today, using half as much energy to produce each dollar of wealth
• use 6 to 10 times more energy from renewable sources like wind, solar, hydro, and biofuels.

Energy security and sustainability

According to their sustainability report, Shell wants to answer to the need for energy security by

• stepping up the efforts to find and develop more oil and natural gas
• helping to maintain a wide range of oil and natural gas sources from different regions.

It wants to answer the need for a sustainable energy economy by

• developing substitutes for oil in the transport sector
• developing alternative sources for generating electrical power
• finding new ways to manage environmental impacts from fossil fuel production and use.

Climate change mitigation

Is it still financially and environmentally sustainable to invest in CO₂ intensive fossil fuels with the above projections for the future in mind? Shell leaves this question largely up to governments. Jeroen van de Veer, Chief Executive of Shell: 'Scientists and governments are best placed to decide. The scientists determine the climate consequences of different CO₂ levels. Governments must then decide what level is acceptable and propose policies to reach it… Our responsibility is to be one of the lowest CO₂ operators for this source of energy.'